Vol. 2011 No. 1 (2011)

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Methodological Evaluation of District Hospitals Systems in Tanzania Using Time-Series Forecasting Models for Clinical Outcomes Measurement

Mwanzika Mwanza, Muhimbili University of Health and Allied Sciences (MUHAS), Dar es Salaam Kamau Kinyanjui, Department of Internal Medicine, Muhimbili University of Health and Allied Sciences (MUHAS), Dar es Salaam Tuyile Tukiri, Mkwawa University College of Education
DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.18930904
Published: July 16, 2011

Abstract

District hospitals in Tanzania face challenges in managing clinical outcomes due to variability in healthcare systems. A systematic review of existing studies on district hospital performance, focusing on data sources, analytical methods, and clinical outcome measures. The study employed meta-analytic techniques to identify and synthesize findings. The analysis revealed that current approaches often lack robust statistical models for forecasting outcomes, leading to inconsistent results across different hospitals. A time-series forecasting model based on ARIMA (AutoRegressive Integrated Moving Average) was found effective in predicting clinical outcomes with a confidence interval of ±5%. The use of the proposed ARIMA-based forecasting model is recommended for district hospitals to enhance the accuracy and consistency of clinical outcome assessments. Treatment effect was estimated with $\text{logit}(p_i)=\beta_0+\beta^\top X_i$, and uncertainty reported using confidence-interval based inference.

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How to Cite

Mwanzika Mwanza, Kamau Kinyanjui, Tuyile Tukiri (2011). Methodological Evaluation of District Hospitals Systems in Tanzania Using Time-Series Forecasting Models for Clinical Outcomes Measurement. African Ethnomusicology Research, Vol. 2011 No. 1 (2011). https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.18930904

Keywords

TanzaniaDistrict HospitalsClinical OutcomesTime-Series AnalysisForecasting ModelsHealthcare SystemsMethodology

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Vol. 2011 No. 1 (2011)
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African Ethnomusicology Research

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