Time-Series Forecasting Model Evaluation of Community Health Centre Systems in Tanzania,

Community health centres in Tanzania have been established to improve access to healthcare services for underserved populations. However, their performance and potential yield improvements remain under scrutiny. A time-series forecasting model was employed to analyse data from community health centres in Tanzania between and . The model incorporates robust standard errors for uncertainty quantification. The forecasted yield improvement suggests a 15% increase in patient consultations over the next year, indicating potential operational efficiency gains with current resource levels. This study validates the use of time-series forecasting models to assess and enhance community health centre systems in Tanzania. The identified yield improvements highlight areas for targeted interventions. Based on these findings, it is recommended that resources be allocated towards training staff and improving infrastructure to maximise the forecasted yield improvement. Treatment effect was estimated with $\text{logit}(p_i)=\beta_0+\beta^\top X_i$, and uncertainty reported using confidence-interval based inference.