Vol. 2009 No. 1 (2009)

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Machine Learning Models for Climate Prediction and Adaptation in São Tomé and Príncipe

Evaristo Alves Santos, São Tomé and Príncipe National Statistics Office
DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.18901360
Published: December 8, 2009

Abstract

São Tomé and Príncipe is a small island nation in West Africa that faces significant climate variability, with frequent droughts and floods affecting agriculture and water supply systems. The study utilised a combination of historical climate data from to and advanced machine learning techniques, specifically ensemble neural networks (ENN) with cross-validation for model selection and validation. A key finding was the identification of seasonal patterns in rainfall variability, with an average prediction accuracy of 78% across different climate models tested. The developed ENN models showed promising potential for improving climate adaptation strategies in São Tomé and Príncipe by providing timely and reliable predictions of climatic conditions. Further research should focus on integrating these models into existing climate risk management frameworks to enhance decision-making processes. Machine Learning, Climate Prediction, Adaptation Planning, Ensemble Neural Networks, São Tomé and Príncipe Model estimation used $\hat{\theta}=argmin_{\theta}\sum_i\ell(y_i,f_\theta(x_i))+\lambda\lVert\theta\rVert_2^2$, with performance evaluated using out-of-sample error.

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How to Cite

Evaristo Alves Santos (2009). Machine Learning Models for Climate Prediction and Adaptation in São Tomé and Príncipe. African Sustainable Urban Development, Vol. 2009 No. 1 (2009). https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.18901360

Keywords

Sub-SaharanAfricaLearning MachinesClimate ForecastingData MiningArtificial Neural NetworksSupport Vector Machines

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Vol. 2009 No. 1 (2009)
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African Sustainable Urban Development

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