Risk, Capital, and Behaviour: Determinants of Agricultural Investment Decisions in Rural South Sudanese Communities

Agricultural investment decisions in rural South Sudan are shaped by an intricate interplay of capital constraints, behavioural biases, and environmental volatility, factors that standard economic models systematically underestimate. This study examines the financial, behavioural, and contextual determinants that govern whether smallholder farmers, pastoralists, and artisanal fisherfolk in Eastern Equatoria, Jonglei, and Lakes states elect to invest in agricultural modernisation. Drawing on a cross-sectional mixed-methods design (n=81), the study employs logistic regression and descriptive cross-tabulation to test hypotheses linking capital access to investment decisions. Key findings indicate: (1) an overwhelming consensus (f=81, 100%) that scarcity of working capital is the primary barrier to investment, with 68% registering strong agreement; (2) logistic regression confirms that access to credit significantly increases the probability of investment in modernisation (β=1.9459, SE=0.875, p=0.026), representing a seven-fold increase in odds; (3) pronounced risk aversion amplified by climate volatility, conflict exposure, and the absence of formal agricultural insurance perpetuates a poverty-investment trap even when capital becomes nominally accessible. Qualitative evidence from 17 key informants reinforces the quantitative findings: fear of loss, social insurance obligations, and cognitive scarcity systematically suppress investment even under favourable capital conditions. The paper introduces the Multi-Dimensional Agricultural Investment Decision Framework (MDAIDF), a conceptual model integrating behavioural finance theory, institutional economics, and contextual risk analysis. Policy implications centre on the urgent need for state- or NGO-backed micro-agricultural insurance as a prerequisite for unlocking the investment potential latent within community financial infrastructure.