Vol. 2009 No. 1 (2009)

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Cost-Effectiveness Evaluation of Public Health Surveillance Systems in Ethiopia Using Time-Series Forecasting Models

Fikru Debella, Adama Science and Technology University (ASTU) Mulugeta Gebreab, Hawassa University Aklilu Tekle, Adama Science and Technology University (ASTU)
DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.18894324
Published: February 9, 2009

Abstract

Public health surveillance systems are critical for monitoring disease outbreaks in Ethiopia, where infectious diseases pose significant public health challenges. A time-series forecasting model was employed, incorporating ARIMA (AutoRegressive Integrated Moving Average) methodology to analyse historical data from surveillance systems in Ethiopia. Robust standard errors were used for inference based on the uncertainty associated with the forecasts. The analysis revealed a significant upward trend in disease incidence over the past five years, indicating an increasing need for resources and improved operational efficiency in surveillance efforts. The time-series forecasting model demonstrated the potential to predict future resource needs accurately, contributing to more cost-effective public health interventions in Ethiopia. Based on these findings, recommendations include optimising surveillance networks, enhancing early warning systems, and investing in training for local health workers to improve detection rates of infectious diseases. Public Health Surveillance, Time-Series Forecasting, ARIMA Model, Cost-Effectiveness, Disease Detection Treatment effect was estimated with $\text{logit}(p_i)=\beta_0+\beta^\top X_i$, and uncertainty reported using confidence-interval based inference.

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How to Cite

Fikru Debella, Mulugeta Gebreab, Aklilu Tekle (2009). Cost-Effectiveness Evaluation of Public Health Surveillance Systems in Ethiopia Using Time-Series Forecasting Models. African Agricultural Biotechnology (Applied Science/Tech), Vol. 2009 No. 1 (2009). https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.18894324

Keywords

EthiopiaGeographic Information Systems (GIS)Public Health SurveillanceTime-Series AnalysisForecasting ModelsCost-Benefit AnalysisEpidemiology

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Vol. 2009 No. 1 (2009)
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African Agricultural Biotechnology (Applied Science/Tech)

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