Climate Change, Human Security and Livelihood Vulnerability in the Central African Republic: A Survey-Based Analysis, 2021–2026

The Central African Republic, situated in the Sahelian zone, faces acute climate variability, which intersects with protracted conflict to create complex threats to human security. Existing research often treats climate and conflict as separate drivers, lacking integrated analysis of their compounded effects on livelihood systems. This study investigates the specific pathways through which climate change impacts dimensions of human security—including food, health, and economic security—and assesses the resultant livelihood vulnerability of rural and peri-urban populations. A stratified, multi-stage cluster survey was administered to 1,200 households across five prefectures. The questionnaire measured exposure-sensitivity to climate hazards, adaptive capacity, and human security outcomes. Quantitative data were analysed using multivariate regression and vulnerability indexing. A direct, positive relationship was found between reported climate shocks and multidimensional insecurity. Specifically, 78% of households experiencing consecutive drought years reported severe food insecurity, a rate 2.3 times higher than those not exposed. Livelihood vulnerability was significantly mediated by access to social networks and alternative income sources. Climate change acts as a threat multiplier, intensifying existing human insecurities and eroding the resilience of livelihood systems. The interdependence of climate and conflict dynamics creates a vicious cycle of vulnerability that existing humanitarian and development frameworks are inadequately designed to address. Policy must integrate climate adaptation with conflict-sensitive livelihood protection. Priorities include: developing climate-informed early warning and social protection systems; investing in decentralised, renewable energy for food and water security; and fostering inclusive local governance for natural resource management. climate vulnerability, human security, livelihoods, Sahel, survey research, adaptation, Central Africa This paper provides novel, survey-based empirical evidence of the quantified relationship between discrete climate shocks and multidimensional human security outcomes in a high-risk, under-studied context, offering a integrated analytical framework for future research.