Hydrological Governance and Conflict Mitigation: A Survey of Community Perspectives on Nile Basin Water Scarcity in Uganda, 2021–2026

Water scarcity in the Nile Basin is a critical environmental and geopolitical challenge, with significant implications for local livelihoods and regional stability. Understanding community-level perceptions of water governance is essential for developing effective conflict mitigation strategies. This study aimed to analyse community perspectives on hydrological governance structures and their perceived efficacy in mitigating water-related conflicts. It sought to identify key factors influencing trust in transboundary water management and local conflict resolution mechanisms. A stratified random sample survey was administered to 1,250 households across five riparian districts. The questionnaire captured quantitative data on governance perceptions and qualitative data on conflict experiences. Statistical analysis employed logistic regression and thematic analysis of open-ended responses. A strong majority (78%) of respondents perceived existing governance frameworks as inadequate for addressing scarcity-driven conflicts. Thematic analysis revealed that inequitable allocation, rather than absolute scarcity, was the predominant perceived driver of local tensions. Trust in institutions was significantly correlated with transparency in water usage data. Community perspectives highlight a substantial deficit in the legitimacy and operational capacity of current hydrological governance, which undermines conflict mitigation efforts in scarcity-affected regions. Policy must prioritise enhancing transparency and equity in local water allocation. Governance reforms should integrate community-based monitoring and establish clear, accessible grievance redress mechanisms to bolster institutional trust. water governance, transboundary water, resource conflict, community perceptions, Nile Basin, Uganda This paper provides a novel, large-scale dataset of community-level perceptions, revealing that institutional transparency is a more significant predictor of conflict mitigation success than previously emphasised technical water management solutions.