Journal Design Engineering Masthead
African Civil Engineering Journal | 18 February 2003

A Randomised Field Trial Methodology for Cost-Effectiveness Evaluation of Power-Distribution Infrastructure in Nigeria

A, d, e, b, a, y, o, A, d, e, y, e, m, i, ,, N, g, o, z, i, E, z, e, ,, O, l, u, w, a, s, e, u, n, B, a, l, o, g, u, n, ,, C, h, i, n, w, e, O, k, o, n, k, w, o
Randomised Field TrialCost-EffectivenessGrid ReliabilityEngineering Economics
Proposes a novel randomised field trial (RFT) methodology for power-distribution infrastructure.
Employs a primary composite metric: Total Owning Cost per Unit Reliability (TOCUR).
Uses a linear mixed-effects model with robust, clustered standard errors for analysis.
Designed to detect a minimum 15% difference in cost-effectiveness with 80% statistical power.

Abstract

{ "background": "The persistent inefficiency of power-distribution infrastructure in Nigeria necessitates robust, evidence-based methods for evaluating the cost-effectiveness of new equipment and interventions. Current evaluation practices often rely on laboratory tests or non-randomised field deployments, which fail to account for real-world operational heterogeneity and confounding factors.", "purpose and objectives": "This article presents a novel methodology for conducting a randomised field trial (RFT) specifically designed to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of power-distribution equipment, such as transformers and conductors, within the Nigerian grid. The objective is to provide a rigorous framework for comparing the lifecycle costs and performance of different technological systems under actual operating conditions.", "methodology": "The proposed RFT methodology employs a cluster-randomised design, where geographically distinct distribution feeders serve as experimental units. Feeders are randomly assigned to receive either the new intervention equipment or the existing standard equipment. Cost-effectiveness is measured via a primary composite metric, the Total Owning Cost per Unit Reliability (TOCUR), calculated over the trial period. The analysis employs a linear mixed-effects model: $\\text{TOCUR}{ij} = \\mu + \\tau \\cdot \\text{Treatment}{i} + \\beta X{ij} + u{j} + \\epsilon{ij}$, where $u{j}$ is a random intercept for region $j$, and $X_{ij}$ are feeder-level covariates. Inference will utilise robust standard errors clustered at the regional level.", "findings": "As a methodology article, this paper presents no empirical trial results. However, the detailed protocol specifies that the primary analysis will determine the direction and magnitude of the cost-effectiveness ratio, with a minimum detectable difference in TOCUR of 15% set a priori. Power calculations indicate that a minimum of 40 feeder clusters per treatment arm is required to achieve 80% power at a 5% significance level.", "conclusion": "The structured RFT methodology provides a scientifically rigorous framework for generating high-quality evidence on the economic and operational performance of power-distribution