Vol. 1 No. 1 (2026)

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A Methodological Evaluation of Power-Distribution System Efficiency in Senegal: A Difference-in-Differences Analysis (2000–2026)

Aminata Ndiaye, Department of Sustainable Systems, Council for the Development of Social Science Research in Africa (CODESRIA), Dakar Mamadou Diop, Council for the Development of Social Science Research in Africa (CODESRIA), Dakar
DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.18969212
Published: June 8, 2026

Abstract

{ "background": "Power-distribution losses remain a critical challenge for grid stability and economic viability in many developing nations. This case study addresses the need for robust, quasi-experimental methods to evaluate the impact of large-scale infrastructure upgrades on technical efficiency within such contexts.", "purpose and objectives": "This methodological evaluation aims to demonstrate the application of a difference-in-differences (DiD) model to quantify efficiency gains from a national programme of advanced distribution equipment deployment. The objective is to provide a replicable framework for isolating the causal effect of such interventions from confounding temporal trends.", "methodology": "A longitudinal case study design is employed, analysing panel data from treated and control regions. The core statistical model is a two-way fixed effects DiD specification: $Y{it} = \\beta0 + \\beta1 (\\text{Treated}i \\times \\text{Post}t) + \\alphai + \\gammat + \\epsilon{it}$, where $Y{it}$ is the technical loss rate. Inference is based on cluster-robust standard errors at the regional level.", "findings": "The analysis indicates a statistically significant reduction in technical losses attributable to the equipment upgrades. The DiD estimator, $\\beta1$, is -2.8 percentage points (95% CI: -4.1, -1.5), suggesting the programme substantially improved network efficiency. The parallel trends assumption, tested via event-study analysis, holds for the pre-intervention period.", "conclusion": "The DiD approach provides a rigorous methodological framework for evaluating power-distribution efficiency projects, effectively controlling for unobserved time-invariant heterogeneity and common temporal shocks. This case confirms the model's utility in an engineering-economic context.", "recommendations": "Future infrastructure evaluations should adopt quasi-experimental designs like DiD to strengthen causal claims. Utilities should implement staggered roll-outs of major projects to facilitate such analyses. Data collection protocols must ensure consistent measurement across treatment and control groups.", "key words": "difference

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How to Cite

Aminata Ndiaye, Mamadou Diop (2026). A Methodological Evaluation of Power-Distribution System Efficiency in Senegal: A Difference-in-Differences Analysis (2000–2026). African Civil Engineering Journal, Vol. 1 No. 1 (2026). https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.18969212

Keywords

Power distribution lossesSub-Saharan AfricaDifference-in-differencesGrid modernisationQuasi-experimental designEnergy efficiencySmart grid technologies

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Vol. 1 No. 1 (2026)
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