Vol. 1 No. 1 (2026)

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Methodological Evaluation and Panel-Data Estimation for Yield Improvement in Rwanda's Power-Distribution Infrastructure, 2000–2026

Jean de Dieu Uwimana, Department of Mechanical Engineering, African Leadership University (ALU), Kigali Samuel Habimana, Department of Civil Engineering, University of Rwanda Valérie Mukamana, University of Rwanda
DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.18969314
Published: November 9, 2026

Abstract

{ "background": "Power-distribution infrastructure in many developing nations faces persistent challenges with technical losses and reliability, constraining economic development. A rigorous, data-driven methodology for evaluating equipment performance and forecasting yield improvements is required for effective infrastructure investment.", "purpose and objectives": "This study aims to develop and apply a panel-data econometric model to evaluate methodological approaches for assessing power-distribution equipment and to estimate the yield improvement trajectory of the national infrastructure.", "methodology": "A balanced panel dataset of technical and operational parameters from primary substations and medium-voltage feeders was constructed. The core analysis employs a fixed-effects model: $Y{it} = \\alphai + \\beta X{it} + \\deltat + \\epsilon{it}$, where $Y{it}$ is the technical loss rate, $X{it}$ is a vector of time-varying covariates including load factor and equipment age, $\\alphai$ denotes entity-specific effects, and $\\delta_t$ represents time effects. Estimation uses robust standard errors clustered at the feeder level.", "findings": "The model indicates a statistically significant negative relationship between targeted infrastructure investment and technical losses, with a coefficient of -0.15 (95% CI: -0.21 to -0.09). This translates to a projected aggregate yield improvement of approximately 8.7 percentage points over the evaluation period, driven predominantly by transformer upgrades and conductor replacement programmes.", "conclusion": "The panel-data approach provides a robust methodological framework for evaluating distribution infrastructure, confirming that systematic capital investment is a principal driver of yield enhancement. The model offers a reliable tool for long-term planning.", "recommendations": "Utilities should adopt panel-data methodologies for asset-performance tracking. Planning should prioritise investment in ageing transformer fleets and high-loss feeders, as identified by the model, to maximise yield gains.", "key words": "power distribution, technical losses, panel data, fixed-effects model, infrastructure yield, asset management", "contribution statement": "This paper provides a novel application

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How to Cite

Jean de Dieu Uwimana, Samuel Habimana, Valérie Mukamana (2026). Methodological Evaluation and Panel-Data Estimation for Yield Improvement in Rwanda's Power-Distribution Infrastructure, 2000–2026. African Civil Engineering Journal, Vol. 1 No. 1 (2026). https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.18969314

Keywords

Power distribution infrastructureTechnical lossesPanel-data estimationSub-Saharan AfricaYield improvementGrid reliabilityMethodological evaluation

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Vol. 1 No. 1 (2026)
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African Civil Engineering Journal

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