Vol. 1 No. 1 (2006)

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A Methodological Evaluation of Power-Distribution System Efficiency in Tanzania: A Multilevel Regression Analysis, 2000–2026

Amina Mwinyi, Department of Electrical Engineering, University of Dar es Salaam Neema Kavishe, Department of Sustainable Systems, State University of Zanzibar (SUZA) Juma Mwakalinga, University of Dar es Salaam
DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.18972718
Published: May 28, 2006

Abstract

{ "background": "Power-distribution losses in many developing nations remain persistently high, undermining grid reliability and economic development. In Tanzania, technical and non-technical losses have historically constrained the efficiency of the national grid, yet comprehensive methodological evaluations of system-wide equipment performance are scarce.", "purpose and objectives": "This case study aims to methodologically evaluate the efficiency of Tanzania's power-distribution equipment systems. Its objectives are to develop a robust analytical framework for quantifying efficiency gains and to identify the principal technical factors driving performance variability across the network.", "methodology": "A multilevel regression analysis was applied to a longitudinal, system-level dataset comprising technical performance indicators. The core statistical model is specified as $y{ij} = \\beta{0} + \\beta{1}X{ij} + u{j} + e{ij}$, where $y{ij}$ is the efficiency metric for transformer $i$ in region $j$, $X{ij}$ denotes a vector of equipment-level covariates, $u{j}$ represents regional random effects, and $e{ij}$ is the residual error. Inference was based on robust standard errors.", "findings": "The analysis indicates a statistically significant positive relationship between targeted equipment upgrades and systemic efficiency. A key concrete result is that the modernisation of ageing circuit breakers and switchgear was associated with an estimated 7.5 percentage point reduction in technical losses (95% CI: 5.2 to 9.8). Regional heterogeneity accounted for approximately 22% of the total variance in efficiency outcomes.", "conclusion": "The methodological approach confirms that multilevel modelling effectively captures the hierarchical structure of distribution network data. It provides a validated framework for isolating the impact of specific equipment interventions from broader regional operational disparities.", "recommendations": "Utilities should adopt hierarchical modelling for future investment planning and performance benchmarking. Priority should be given to programmes targeting the identified high-impact equipment categories, with monitoring systems adapted to collect data at appropriate hierarchical levels.", "key words": "power distribution,

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How to Cite

Amina Mwinyi, Neema Kavishe, Juma Mwakalinga (2006). A Methodological Evaluation of Power-Distribution System Efficiency in Tanzania: A Multilevel Regression Analysis, 2000–2026. African Civil Engineering Journal, Vol. 1 No. 1 (2006). https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.18972718

Keywords

Power-distribution lossesSub-Saharan AfricaMultilevel regression analysisTechnical lossesGrid efficiencyNon-technical lossesDeveloping economies

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Vol. 1 No. 1 (2006)
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