{ "background": "Municipal infrastructure systems in many developing nations face chronic reliability challenges, yet robust methodological frameworks for their systemic evaluation are scarce. Existing assessments often lack the statistical rigour to account for hierarchical data structures inherent in networked assets.", "purpose and objectives": "This case study aims to methodologically evaluate the reliability of integrated municipal infrastructure systems and to develop a predictive multilevel regression model that quantifies the influence of asset-level and municipal-level factors on system performance.", "methodology": "A longitudinal case study design was employed, integrating archival performance data, technical audits, and condition surveys from a stratified sample of municipal assets. The core analysis used a three-level mixed-effects regression model, $y{ijk} = \\beta0 + \\beta X{ijk} + u{jk} + vk + \\epsilon{ijk}$, where $u{jk}$ and $vk$ are random intercepts for asset clusters and municipalities, respectively. Inference was based on robust standard errors.", "findings": "The multilevel model explained 68% of the variance in reliability indices. A key concrete result is that the coefficient for preventive maintenance expenditure was 0.42 (95% CI: 0.31, 0.53), indicating a strong positive association with system reliability. Municipal governance quality emerged as a significant higher-level predictor, with its effect moderating several asset-level relationships.", "conclusion": "The methodological approach demonstrates that system reliability is a function of nested technical and institutional factors. The multilevel model provides a superior analytical framework compared to conventional single-level regression for infrastructure systems.", "recommendations": "Municipal authorities should adopt hierarchical performance modelling for asset management planning. Infrastructure investment decisions must be integrated with governance capacity-building programmes. Future research should apply this methodology to other utility networks.", "key words": "infrastructure reliability, multilevel modelling, asset management, municipal engineering, system performance, regression analysis", "contribution statement": "This study provides a novel methodological framework for analysing hierarchical infrastructure performance