Vol. 1 No. 1 (2021)

View Issue TOC

Methodological Evaluation of Municipal Infrastructure Asset Systems in Uganda: A Difference-in-Differences Model for Measuring Adoption Rates, 2000–2026

Julius Mugisha, Uganda National Council for Science and Technology (UNCST) Nakato Ssekamanya, Uganda National Council for Science and Technology (UNCST) Patience Nalwoga, Department of Electrical Engineering, National Agricultural Research Organisation (NARO) Moses Kato, Makerere University Business School (MUBS)
DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.18973854
Published: January 23, 2021

Abstract

{ "background": "Municipal infrastructure asset management in sub-Saharan Africa faces significant challenges in tracking the adoption and performance of engineered systems. Existing evaluation methods often lack robust counterfactual analysis, limiting the ability to attribute outcomes to specific interventions or policies.", "purpose and objectives": "This study aims to develop and validate a quasi-experimental methodological framework for evaluating the adoption rates of municipal infrastructure systems. The primary objective is to quantify the causal effect of a national asset management policy on the uptake of standardised systems across urban local governments.", "methodology": "A difference-in-differences (DiD) model is employed, using panel data from urban councils. The treatment group consists of councils that implemented the national policy, while the control group comprises those that did not. The core model is specified as: $Y{it} = \\beta0 + \\beta1 \\text{Treat}i + \\beta2 \\text{Post}t + \\delta (\\text{Treat}i \\times \\text{Post}t) + \\epsilon_{it}$. Inference is based on cluster-robust standard errors at the council level.", "findings": "The policy intervention had a statistically significant positive effect on adoption rates. The DiD estimator, $\\delta$, was 0.18 (95% CI: 0.12, 0.24), indicating an 18-percentage-point increase in the probability of system adoption attributable to the policy. The parallel trends assumption was validated using placebo tests.", "conclusion": "The difference-in-differences model provides a rigorous methodological tool for evaluating infrastructure system adoption, successfully isolating the policy's causal impact. This approach offers a substantial improvement over descriptive trend analyses.", "recommendations": "Infrastructure policy evaluations should incorporate quasi-experimental designs to strengthen causal claims. Urban councils should institutionalise longitudinal data collection to support such analyses. The methodology is recommended for replication in similar contexts.", "key words": "asset management, difference-in-differences,

Full Text:

Read the Full Article

The HTML galley is loaded below for inline reading and better discovery.

How to Cite

Julius Mugisha, Nakato Ssekamanya, Patience Nalwoga, Moses Kato (2021). Methodological Evaluation of Municipal Infrastructure Asset Systems in Uganda: A Difference-in-Differences Model for Measuring Adoption Rates, 2000–2026. African Civil Engineering Journal, Vol. 1 No. 1 (2021). https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.18973854

Keywords

Municipal infrastructureAsset managementSub-Saharan AfricaDifference-in-differencesAdoption ratesEngineering systemsUganda

Research Snapshot

Desktop reading view
Language
EN
Formats
HTML + PDF
Publication Track
Vol. 1 No. 1 (2021)
Current Journal
African Civil Engineering Journal

References