{ "background": "The reliability of manufacturing systems is a critical determinant of industrial productivity and economic growth. In many developing economies, systematic methodological frameworks for assessing and predicting this reliability are lacking, leading to unplanned downtime and inefficiencies.", "purpose and objectives": "This study aims to methodologically evaluate the operational reliability of manufacturing plants and to develop a predictive multilevel regression model that accounts for both plant-level and subsystem-level factors influencing system failure.", "methodology": "A cross-sectional field study was conducted across a stratified sample of manufacturing plants. Data on failure events, maintenance logs, and operational parameters were collected. A three-level hierarchical linear model was specified: $\\log(\\text{MTBF}{ijk}) = \\beta{0} + u{0j} + v{0k} + \\beta X{ijk} + \\epsilon{ijk}$, where $i$, $j$, and $k$ index observations, subsystems, and plants, respectively. Robust standard errors were computed to account for heteroscedasticity.", "findings": "The multilevel model explained 68% of the variance in mean time between failures (MTBF). A key finding was that the quality of preventive maintenance programmes at the plant level had a stronger positive association with reliability ($\\beta = 0.42$, 95% CI [0.31, 0.53]) than any single subsystem upgrade. Electromechanical subsystems were identified as the most frequent source of cascading failures.", "conclusion": "The methodological evaluation confirms that manufacturing system reliability is inherently hierarchical. The developed model provides a superior analytical tool compared to conventional single-level analyses, as it effectively partitions variance across different organisational levels.", "recommendations": "Industry practitioners should adopt a holistic, plant-wide reliability management strategy prioritising systematic preventive maintenance. Regulatory bodies are encouraged to integrate such multilevel assessment frameworks into national industrial performance benchmarks.", "key words": "systems reliability, hierarchical linear modelling, manufacturing, maintenance engineering, industrial performance", "contribution