Vol. 1 No. 1 (2021)

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Methodological Evaluation and Yield Improvement of Senegalese Power-Distribution Systems: A Difference-in-Differences Case Study, 2000–2026

Fatou Ndiaye, Cheikh Anta Diop University (UCAD), Dakar Aminata Diop, Institut Pasteur de Dakar Ibrahima Diallo, Council for the Development of Social Science Research in Africa (CODESRIA), Dakar Moussa Sarr, Department of Sustainable Systems, African Institute for Mathematical Sciences (AIMS) Senegal
DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.18972172
Published: August 12, 2021

Abstract

{ "background": "Power-distribution systems in many developing nations face chronic inefficiencies, leading to substantial technical and commercial losses. This case study examines a national programme aimed at modernising such infrastructure, focusing on the methodological challenge of robustly evaluating the impact of equipment upgrades on system yield.", "purpose and objectives": "This work aims to develop and apply a quasi-experimental econometric model to isolate the causal effect of a large-scale equipment replacement initiative on the technical yield of a national power-distribution network. The objective is to provide a rigorous methodological framework for impact assessment in engineering infrastructure projects.", "methodology": "A difference-in-differences (DiD) model is employed, leveraging phased implementation across regions to create treatment and control groups. The core specification is $Y{it} = \\beta0 + \\beta1 (\\text{Treat}i \\times \\text{Post}t) + \\gammai + \\deltat + \\epsilon{it}$, where $Y{it}$ is the technical yield. Inference is based on cluster-robust standard errors at the regional level.", "findings": "The intervention produced a statistically significant positive effect on technical yield. The DiD estimator, $\\beta1$, was 8.7 percentage points (95% CI: 6.2, 11.2), indicating a substantial improvement attributable to the equipment upgrades. The parallel trends assumption was validated using pre-intervention data.", "conclusion": "The applied DiD model successfully quantified the causal impact of the infrastructure modernisation, confirming its effectiveness. The methodology provides a robust alternative to before-after comparisons, which are vulnerable to confounding temporal trends.", "recommendations": "Future engineering evaluations of large-scale infrastructure programmes should adopt quasi-experimental designs like DiD to strengthen causal claims. Utilities should consider phased roll-outs not only for logistical purposes but also to facilitate rigorous impact measurement.", "key words": "difference-in-differences, power distribution, technical losses, impact evaluation, quasi

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How to Cite

Fatou Ndiaye, Aminata Diop, Ibrahima Diallo, Moussa Sarr (2021). Methodological Evaluation and Yield Improvement of Senegalese Power-Distribution Systems: A Difference-in-Differences Case Study, 2000–2026. African Civil Engineering Journal, Vol. 1 No. 1 (2021). https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.18972172

Keywords

Power distribution systemsTechnical lossesDifference-in-differencesSub-Saharan AfricaGrid modernisationYield improvementCase study

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Vol. 1 No. 1 (2021)
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