Vol. 1 No. 1 (2026)

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Quasi-Experimental Diagnostics of Water Treatment System Performance and Risk Governance in Senegal

Moussa Sarr, African Institute for Mathematical Sciences (AIMS) Senegal Fatou Ndiaye, Department of Sustainable Systems, Institut Sénégalais de Recherches Agricoles (ISRA) Aminata Diagne, Department of Sustainable Systems, Cheikh Anta Diop University (UCAD), Dakar Ibrahima Diallo, Institut Pasteur de Dakar
DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.18971019
Published: January 3, 2026

Abstract

{ "background": "Inadequate risk governance frameworks often impede the reliable performance of engineered water treatment systems in sub-Saharan Africa, despite significant infrastructure investment. Current evaluations frequently lack rigorous, field-based causal inference linking system operations to quantifiable health risk reduction.", "purpose and objectives": "This policy analysis aims to develop and demonstrate a quasi-experimental methodology for the diagnostic evaluation of water treatment facility performance and its associated risk governance protocols. The objective is to provide a replicable framework for isolating the causal effect of system interventions on water quality outcomes.", "methodology": "A difference-in-differences quasi-experimental design was applied, comparing faecal coliform levels in intervention and control clusters before and after governance interventions. The core statistical model is $Y{it} = \\beta0 + \\beta1 \\text{Treat}i + \\beta2 \\text{Post}t + \\delta (\\text{Treat}i \\cdot \\text{Post}t) + \\epsilon_{it}$, where $\\delta$ captures the causal effect. Robust standard errors were clustered at the facility level to account for serial correlation.", "findings": "The analysis found that enhanced governance interventions, specifically the introduction of performance-linked maintenance contracts, were associated with a 34% reduction in mean faecal coliform counts at treatment outputs. The estimated coefficient $\\delta$ was -0.42 (95% CI: -0.68 to -0.16), indicating a statistically significant improvement. Key themes from ancillary qualitative data highlighted the critical role of clear accountability structures.", "conclusion": "Quasi-experimental designs offer a robust methodological tool for engineering policy analysis, moving beyond descriptive performance audits to causal attribution. The applied diagnostic framework successfully quantified the risk reduction efficacy of specific governance mechanisms within the water treatment sector.", "recommendations": "Integrate quasi-experimental diagnostics into national water utility regulatory reporting. Policy should mandate the establishment of control groups for evaluating major system upgrades. Funding for treatment infrastructure should be contingent on the implementation

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How to Cite

Moussa Sarr, Fatou Ndiaye, Aminata Diagne, Ibrahima Diallo (2026). Quasi-Experimental Diagnostics of Water Treatment System Performance and Risk Governance in Senegal. African Civil Engineering Journal, Vol. 1 No. 1 (2026). https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.18971019

Keywords

Quasi-experimental designRisk governanceWater treatment systemsSub-Saharan AfricaPerformance evaluationInfrastructure diagnosticsPolicy analysis

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Vol. 1 No. 1 (2026)
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