Vol. 2009 No. 1 (2009)

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Bayesian Hierarchical Model Assessment of Manufacturing System Reliability in Tanzanian Plants

Kamija Ngowi, State University of Zanzibar (SUZA) Tundu Simiyu, Tanzania Commission for Science and Technology (COSTECH) Mwihaki Kimba, Department of Civil Engineering, State University of Zanzibar (SUZA) Mawanda Kigwa, Sokoine University of Agriculture (SUA), Morogoro
DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.18893820
Published: January 26, 2009

Abstract

Manufacturing systems in Tanzanian plants are often characterized by variability and complexity due to local conditions, equipment quality, and workforce proficiency. A Bayesian hierarchical model was employed to assess system reliability, incorporating data from multiple sites and accounting for site-specific variations. The model's effectiveness was tested through simulated data scenarios representing different plant conditions. The analysis revealed significant variability in system performance across different Tanzanian plants, with some facilities showing a failure rate of up to 15% under certain operating conditions. The Bayesian hierarchical model demonstrated the ability to capture and quantify these site-specific variations, providing insights into areas needing improvement for enhancing overall system reliability. Manufacturing managers should consider implementing targeted interventions in facilities with higher failure rates based on this study's findings. This could involve upgrading equipment or training staff. manufacturing systems, Tanzanian plants, Bayesian hierarchical model, reliability assessment, uncertainty quantification The maintenance outcome was modelled as $Y_{it}=\beta_0+\beta_1X_{it}+u_i+\varepsilon_{it}$, with robustness checked using heteroskedasticity-consistent errors.

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How to Cite

Kamija Ngowi, Tundu Simiyu, Mwihaki Kimba, Mawanda Kigwa (2009). Bayesian Hierarchical Model Assessment of Manufacturing System Reliability in Tanzanian Plants. African Control Systems Engineering, Vol. 2009 No. 1 (2009). https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.18893820

Keywords

TanzaniaHierarchical ModellingBayesian StatisticsReliability EngineeringQuality ControlSystem DynamicsMonte Carlo Simulation

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Vol. 2009 No. 1 (2009)
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