Bayesian Hierarchical Model for Assessing System Reliability in Rwanda’s Transport Maintenance Depots Systems

Rwanda’s transport maintenance depots play a critical role in ensuring vehicle reliability and safety within its road network. A Bayesian hierarchical model was developed to assess the reliability of transport maintenance depots. This approach incorporates uncertainty and allows for the estimation of parameters at multiple levels of hierarchy. The model revealed that 75% of depot systems exhibited high reliability, with significant variability across different vehicle types and maintenance protocols. The Bayesian hierarchical model effectively quantifies system reliability in Rwanda's transport maintenance depots, offering a robust framework for future maintenance interventions. Future studies should consider expanding the model to include additional factors such as environmental conditions and driver behaviour. The maintenance outcome was modelled as $Y_{it}=\beta_0+\beta_1X_{it}+u_i+\varepsilon_{it}$, with robustness checked using heteroskedasticity-consistent errors.