Vol. 2011 No. 1 (2011)

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Time-Series Forecasting Model for Measuring Adoption Rates of Process-Control Systems in Kenya: A Methodological Evaluation

Omar Kinyua, Jomo Kenyatta University of Agriculture and Technology (JKUAT)
DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.18929765
Published: January 8, 2011

Abstract

The adoption of process-control systems in Kenyan manufacturing facilities has been observed to vary over time, influenced by factors such as technological advancements and economic conditions. A time-series forecasting model was employed, incorporating autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) methodology to analyse historical data from selected Kenyan manufacturers. Robust standard errors were used for uncertainty quantification. The ARIMA model predicted a steady increase in adoption rates over the next five years with an estimated growth rate of 12% annually, based on observed trends and external factors like government incentives and technological improvements. The time-series forecasting model demonstrated its effectiveness in predicting future adoption rates, providing valuable insights for manufacturers and policymakers in Kenya's manufacturing sector. Manufacturers should consider the ARIMA forecast to plan their investment strategies. Policymakers could leverage these findings to design targeted interventions that encourage greater adoption of process-control systems. The maintenance outcome was modelled as $Y_{it}=\beta_0+\beta_1X_{it}+u_i+\varepsilon_{it}$, with robustness checked using heteroskedasticity-consistent errors.

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How to Cite

Omar Kinyua (2011). Time-Series Forecasting Model for Measuring Adoption Rates of Process-Control Systems in Kenya: A Methodological Evaluation. African Maintenance Engineering, Vol. 2011 No. 1 (2011). https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.18929765

Keywords

African geographyadoption rateseconometricsforecasting modelstime seriesprocess control systemsAfrican technology assessments

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Vol. 2011 No. 1 (2011)
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African Maintenance Engineering

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