Vol. 2012 No. 1 (2012)

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Bayesian Hierarchical Model for Evaluating Efficiency Gains in Power-Distribution Equipment Systems in Senegal

Kamissou Diop, Department of Civil Engineering, Cheikh Anta Diop University (UCAD), Dakar Toure Sow, Council for the Development of Social Science Research in Africa (CODESRIA), Dakar Samba Ndiaye, Université Gaston Berger (UGB), Saint-Louis
DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.18959561
Published: April 9, 2012

Abstract

Efficient power distribution systems are critical for reliable electricity supply in Senegal. Current methods of evaluating equipment efficiency often lack statistical rigor and may not capture variability across different settings. A Bayesian hierarchical model was developed and applied to field data collected from multiple power distribution points across Senegal. This approach accounts for intra-site variability while providing robust estimates of efficiency gains. The analysis revealed a significant mean increase in equipment efficiency by 12% with robust standard errors indicating the uncertainty around this estimate. The Bayesian hierarchical model demonstrated its effectiveness in capturing site-specific variations and provided actionable insights into efficiency improvements. Recommendation is to implement findings for widespread adoption of these models across Senegalese power grids, potentially leading to substantial energy savings and reliability enhancements. The maintenance outcome was modelled as $Y_{it}=\beta_0+\beta_1X_{it}+u_i+\varepsilon_{it}$, with robustness checked using heteroskedasticity-consistent errors.

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How to Cite

Kamissou Diop, Toure Sow, Samba Ndiaye (2012). Bayesian Hierarchical Model for Evaluating Efficiency Gains in Power-Distribution Equipment Systems in Senegal. African Power Engineering, Vol. 2012 No. 1 (2012). https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.18959561

Keywords

African geographyBayesian statisticsHierarchical modellingMethodological evaluationPower distribution systemsQuantitative methodsStatistical analysis

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Vol. 2012 No. 1 (2012)
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