Vol. 2011 No. 1 (2011)

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Machine Learning Models for Climate Prediction and Adaptation in Botswana: A Methodological Approach

Kgosi Mokgobole, Botswana University of Agriculture and Natural Resources (BUAN) Makgoba Tshepiso, Department of Software Engineering, Botswana International University of Science & Technology (BIUST) Baswana Ditshwanelo, Department of Cybersecurity, Botswana International University of Science & Technology (BIUST)
DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.18929083
Published: April 7, 2011

Abstract

Climate change poses significant challenges to Botswana's agricultural sector and water resources management. Accurate climate prediction models are essential for effective adaptation planning. We employed a Random Forest model with cross-validation techniques to analyse historical meteorological data from the Botswana Meteorological Services. Uncertainty quantification was achieved using bootstrapping methods. The Random Forest model demonstrated an accuracy of 85% in predicting rainfall patterns, indicating its potential for climate adaptation planning. Our study provides a robust machine learning framework that can enhance Botswana's ability to anticipate and adapt to changing climatic conditions. Government agencies should integrate these models into their decision-making processes for sustainable resource management. Machine Learning, Climate Prediction, Adaptation Planning, Random Forest, Uncertainty Quantification Model estimation used $\hat{\theta}=argmin_{\theta}\sum_i\ell(y_i,f_\theta(x_i))+\lambda\lVert\theta\rVert_2^2$, with performance evaluated using out-of-sample error.

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How to Cite

Kgosi Mokgobole, Makgoba Tshepiso, Baswana Ditshwanelo (2011). Machine Learning Models for Climate Prediction and Adaptation in Botswana: A Methodological Approach. African Software Engineering Review, Vol. 2011 No. 1 (2011). https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.18929083

Keywords

Geographical Information SystemsGeographic Information SystemsMachine LearningData MiningPredictive AnalyticsClimate Change AdaptationSpatial Statistics

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Vol. 2011 No. 1 (2011)
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African Software Engineering Review

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