Abstract
{ "background": "The reliability of electrical grids in developing nations is critically dependent on the adoption of high-quality distribution equipment. In Ethiopia, persistent system losses and frequent outages have been linked to the use of non-standard components, yet evidence-based policies to govern equipment uptake are lacking.", "purpose and objectives": "This policy analysis aims to evaluate the effectiveness of a randomised field trial in measuring adoption rates of certified power-distribution equipment and to diagnose the governance mechanisms influencing procurement decisions by regional utilities.", "methodology": "A clustered randomised controlled trial was implemented across multiple administrative zones. Treatment arms included provision of technical specifications alone versus specifications combined with a monitoring protocol. Adoption was measured via physical audits. The primary analysis used a mixed-effects logistic regression model: $\\logit(P(Y{ij}=1)) = \\beta0 + \\beta1 T{ij} + \\gamma X{ij} + uj$, where $u_j \\sim N(0, \\sigma^2)$, accounting for zone-level clustering with robust standard errors.", "findings": "Utilities in the combined intervention arm showed a 34 percentage point higher adoption rate of certified equipment compared to the control (95% CI: 24 to 44 pp). The primary barrier identified was a misalignment between central procurement guidelines and local budget cycles, creating incentives for substandard purchases.", "conclusion": "The randomised trial provides rigorous, causal evidence that technical interventions must be coupled with aligned fiscal governance to significantly improve equipment quality in the distribution network.", "recommendations": "Policy should integrate equipment certification with earmarked budgetary allocations at the regional level. A national diagnostic framework, using randomised audits, should be institutionalised for ongoing system monitoring.", "key words": "randomised controlled trial, power distribution, grid reliability, procurement governance, policy evaluation, electrical infrastructure", "contribution statement": "This study provides the first application of a large-scale randomised field trial to diagnose power infrastructure policy, establishing a causal link between monitored procurement protocols and adoption rates of standard