A Panel-Data Estimation of Power-Distribution System Reliability for Policy Formulation in Senegal (2000–2026)

{ "background": "Chronic power outages and unreliable electricity supply remain significant impediments to economic development in many Sub-Saharan African nations. A robust, evidence-based policy framework requires precise, longitudinal measurement of distribution system performance, yet such analyses are often lacking.", "purpose and objectives": "This policy analysis aims to develop and apply a panel-data econometric model to quantitatively evaluate the reliability of Senegal's power-distribution infrastructure. The objective is to generate actionable evidence for prioritising investment and maintenance policies.", "methodology": "We employ a fixed-effects panel regression model, $R{it} = \\alphai + \\beta1 X{it} + \\beta2 Zt + \\epsilon{it}$, where $R{it}$ is the System Average Interruption Duration Index (SAIDI) for region $i$ in year $t$. Covariates include equipment age, maintenance expenditure, and climatic variables. Inference is based on heteroskedasticity-robust standard errors clustered at the regional level.", "findings": "The analysis identifies a statistically significant negative relationship between targeted maintenance spending and SAIDI. A 10% increase in such expenditure is associated with a 3.2% reduction in outage duration (95% CI: 1.8% to 4.6%). Regional heterogeneity in equipment degradation rates is a major determinant of reliability disparities.", "conclusion": "The reliability of the distribution network is highly responsive to strategic, data-driven maintenance investment. Current blanket-equipment replacement policies are less efficient than targeted interventions informed by panel-data analysis.", "recommendations": "Policy should shift towards a predictive maintenance regime, allocating resources based on panel-model outputs. A national reliability database should be established and mandated for all distribution licensees to enable continuous model refinement.", "key words": "power distribution, system reliability, panel data, policy formulation, infrastructure investment, predictive maintenance", "contribution statement": "This article provides the first application of a longitudinal econometric framework to assess power-distribution