A Quasi-Experimental Framework for Reliability Diagnostics in Senegalese Municipal Infrastructure Asset Management

{ "background": "Municipal infrastructure asset management in many African contexts lacks robust, data-driven frameworks for assessing system reliability. Current practices often rely on reactive maintenance, leading to inefficient resource allocation and service disruption. This gap is particularly acute for secondary urban centres where diagnostic capacity is limited.", "purpose and objectives": "This policy analysis article proposes and evaluates a quasi-experimental methodological framework designed to diagnose the reliability of municipal infrastructure systems. The objective is to provide a replicable, evidence-based tool for municipal engineers and policymakers to prioritise maintenance and investment.", "methodology": "The framework employs a difference-in-differences design, comparing pre- and post-intervention reliability metrics between treatment and control asset groups. System reliability is modelled using a Weibull survival function, $R(t) = \\exp^{-(t/\\eta)^\\beta}$, where $\\eta$ is the scale parameter and $\\beta$ the shape parameter. Inference is based on cluster-robust standard errors to account for municipal-level correlations.", "findings": "The application of the framework to a sample of water distribution networks revealed a significant positive treatment effect on mean time between failures. A key theme was the critical influence of standardised operational data logging on diagnostic accuracy. The estimated average treatment effect was 0.15 (95% CI: 0.08, 0.22) on the log-reliability scale.", "conclusion": "The quasi-experimental framework provides a statistically rigorous and operationally feasible approach for reliability diagnostics within resource-constrained municipal settings. It shifts asset management from a reactive to a predictive stance.", "recommendations": "National and municipal governments should integrate quasi-experimental reliability diagnostics into asset management policy. This requires investment in baseline data collection and training for engineering staff in experimental design and survival analysis techniques.", "key words": "infrastructure asset management, reliability engineering, quasi-experimental design, survival analysis, municipal policy, West Africa", "contribution statement": "This paper provides a novel methodological framework