A Randomised Field Trial for the Cost-Effectiveness Evaluation of Industrial Machinery Fleet Management Systems in Rwanda

{ "background": "The adoption of digital fleet management systems (FMS) for industrial machinery in sub-Saharan Africa is increasing, yet rigorous evidence on their cost-effectiveness remains scarce. This gap hinders informed investment decisions by engineering firms and policymakers.", "purpose and objectives": "This working paper presents a methodological framework for evaluating the cost-effectiveness of industrial FMS. The primary objective is to demonstrate a field trial design capable of generating robust causal estimates of operational and financial impacts.", "methodology": "We conducted a randomised controlled field trial with 42 Rwandan construction and mining firms. Treatment firms received a commercially available FMS for monitoring equipment location, fuel use, and maintenance schedules, while control firms continued with conventional practices. Cost-effectiveness was assessed using a difference-in-differences model: $Y{it} = \\beta0 + \\beta1 (Treati \\times Postt) + \\gamma X{it} + \\epsilon{it}$, where $Y{it}$ is the cost per operational hour. Inference is based on cluster-robust standard errors.", "findings": "Preliminary analysis indicates a reduction in average machinery operating costs for the treatment group. The point estimate suggests a cost decrease of approximately 12% relative to the control, though the 95% confidence interval is wide (-4% to 28%), indicating statistical uncertainty at this stage. The dominant cost-saving themes emerged from improved fuel logistics and reduced unscheduled downtime.", "conclusion": "The implemented randomised trial provides a viable, rigorous methodology for evaluating capital-intensive engineering technologies in real-world industrial settings. The initial findings, while not yet conclusive, point towards potential economic benefits of FMS adoption.", "recommendations": "Further data collection is required to narrow confidence intervals. Engineering firms should consider piloting FMS with embedded evaluation frameworks. Policymakers could use similar trial designs to assess subsidies for digitalisation in the industrial sector.", "key words": "fleet management systems, randomised controlled trial, cost-effectiveness, industrial machinery,