Comparative Evaluation of Manufacturing Systems Adoption in Kenya: A Quasi-Experimental Analysis, 2000–2026

{ "background": "The adoption of advanced manufacturing systems in emerging economies is a critical driver of industrial development, yet rigorous empirical evidence on the determinants and impacts of such adoption remains scarce. Prior studies in the region have often relied on descriptive or correlational analyses, lacking robust counterfactual frameworks to establish causal relationships.", "purpose and objectives": "This study aims to quantify the causal effect of adopting computer-integrated manufacturing (CIM) and lean production systems on operational performance in a developing economy context. It seeks to identify key technological and organisational factors that moderate adoption success.", "methodology": "A quasi-experimental difference-in-differences design was employed, analysing longitudinal plant-level data from a national industrial survey. The core treatment effect was estimated using the model $Y{it} = \\beta0 + \\beta1 (Treati \\times Postt) + \\gamma X{it} + \\alphai + \\deltat + \\epsilon{it}$, where $Y{it}$ is the performance outcome. Inference is based on cluster-robust standard errors at the plant level.", "findings": "Plants adopting integrated systems showed a statistically significant 18.4% increase in overall equipment effectiveness (OEE) compared to the control group (95% CI: 12.1% to 24.7%). The effect was strongly moderated by pre-existing workforce technical training, with a positive coefficient of 0.32 (p < 0.01).", "conclusion": "The adoption of advanced manufacturing systems significantly enhances operational performance, but this relationship is contingent upon complementary investments in human capital. The findings underscore the systemic nature of technological upgrading.", "recommendations": "Industrial policy should incentivise bundled interventions that pair technology acquisition with workforce development programmes. Engineering curricula should be revised to emphasise systems integration skills.", "key words": "manufacturing systems, quasi-experimental design, technology adoption, operational performance, industrial development", "contribution statement": "This paper provides the first application of a