African Telecommunications Engineering | 25 April 2002
Methodological Evaluation of Power-Distribution Equipment Systems in Nigerian Context: Time-Series Forecasting Model for Adoption Rates
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Abstract
Recent technological advancements have led to an increasing focus on power-distribution equipment systems (PDES) in Nigeria's urban areas, necessitating a methodological evaluation for effective adoption and management. A comprehensive analysis was conducted, incorporating data from a diverse set of urban areas across Nigeria. Time-series forecasting models were applied to historical adoption rate data, ensuring the use of appropriate statistical techniques for accurate predictions. The findings indicate that there is a significant upward trend in PDES adoption rates within cities (direction: increasing), with an estimated annual growth rate of 5% based on the time-series model. The study concludes that while current models predict steady growth, challenges such as infrastructure limitations and economic factors may impact future adoption rates. These insights are crucial for policymakers and urban planners in Nigeria. Given the identified trends, it is recommended that investments in PDES be prioritised in areas with growing populations to ensure adequate power supply. Additionally, fostering public-private partnerships could enhance system reliability and efficiency. The maintenance outcome was modelled as $Y<em>{it}=\beta</em>0+\beta<em>1X</em>{it}+u<em>i+\varepsilon</em>{it}$, with robustness checked using heteroskedasticity-consistent errors.