Revisiting Time-Series Forecasting Models in South African Secondary Schools Systems: A Methodological Evaluation and Replication Study

This study addresses a current research gap in Computer Science concerning Methodological evaluation of secondary schools systems in South Africa: time-series forecasting model for measuring yield improvement in South Africa. The objective is to formulate a rigorous model, state verifiable assumptions, and derive results with direct analytical or practical implications. A structured analytical approach was used, integrating formal modelling with domain evidence. The results establish bounded error under perturbation, a convergent estimation process under stated assumptions, and a stable link between the proposed metric and observed outcomes. The findings provide a reproducible analytical basis for subsequent theoretical and applied extensions. Stakeholders should prioritise inclusive, locally grounded strategies and improve data transparency. Methodological evaluation of secondary schools systems in South Africa: time-series forecasting model for measuring yield improvement, South Africa, Africa, Computer Science, replication study This work contributes a formal specification, transparent assumptions, and mathematically interpretable claims. Model estimation used $\hat{\theta}=argmin_{\theta}\sum_i\ell(y_i,f_\theta(x_i))+\lambda\lVert\theta\rVert_2^2$, with performance evaluated using out-of-sample error.