African Fisheries Science (Fisheries/Aquatic) | 27 September 2004
Methodological Evaluation of Municipal Water Systems in South Africa: Time-Series Forecasting for Yield Improvement Analysis
S, i, p, h, o, M, s, i, m, a, n, g, ,, M, p, h, o, S, e, k, o, t, o, ,, N, a, n, d, i, K, h, u, m, a, l, o, ,, T, s, h, e, p, o, Q, w, a, n, e
Abstract
Municipal water systems in South Africa face challenges such as fluctuating demand and supply imbalances, leading to potential yield improvement opportunities. A comprehensive literature review was conducted, focusing on methodologies used in South African municipal water systems. Time-series models were assessed for their predictive accuracy and robustness. The study identified a specific time-series model with an R² of 0.85, indicating that approximately 85% of the yield variation could be explained by the model. This review highlights the efficacy of certain time-series models in forecasting municipal water system yields, offering insights for improving operational efficiency and resource management. Municipal water systems should consider implementing the identified time-series model to forecast yields more accurately and thus improve overall performance. The empirical specification follows $Y=\beta_0+\beta^\top X+\varepsilon$, and inference is reported with uncertainty-aware statistical criteria.