African Fisheries Management (Fisheries/Aquatic) | 09 February 2002
Time-Series Forecasting Model for Efficiency Gains in Senegalese Smallholder Farms Systems,
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Abstract
Efforts to enhance productivity in Senegalese smallholder farms have been hampered by a lack of robust methods for evaluating efficiency gains over time. A mixed-method approach was employed, integrating econometric analysis with field data collection to forecast future efficiencies based on historical performance indicators. The empirical results indicate a steady annual growth rate of 3.5% in farm productivity over the study period, with significant reductions in input costs by up to 20%, driven primarily by optimised crop management techniques. This study provides evidence of sustained efficiency gains within Senegalese smallholder farms, corroborating the efficacy of the proposed forecasting model. The findings suggest that targeted interventions focusing on resource optimization and technological adoption could further enhance productivity in future farming systems. The empirical specification follows $Y=\beta_0+\beta^\top X+\varepsilon$, and inference is reported with uncertainty-aware statistical criteria.