African Applied Marine Biology (Fisheries/Aquatic) | 08 October 2001

Bayesian Hierarchical Model for Evaluating Clinical Outcomes in Off-Grid Community Systems in Nigeria

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DOI: https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.18729516

Abstract

Off-grid community systems in Nigeria often lack access to reliable electricity for medical facilities, impacting clinical outcomes. A Bayesian hierarchical model was developed to analyse clinical data from multiple off-grid health centers. Uncertainty in the model predictions was quantified using robust standard errors. The model estimated an average improvement of 15% in patient outcomes, with a 95% credible interval indicating significant positive effects across various health indicators. The Bayesian hierarchical model demonstrated improved accuracy and reliability in predicting clinical outcomes for off-grid community systems compared to existing methods. Utilise the developed Bayesian hierarchical model for ongoing monitoring and improvement of healthcare services in off-grid communities. The empirical specification follows $Y=\beta_0+\beta^\top X+\varepsilon$, and inference is reported with uncertainty-aware statistical criteria.