African Food Engineering (Food Science/Technology) | 14 March 2005
Methodological Evaluation of Time-Series Forecasting Models for Process-Control Systems Adoption in Uganda,
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Abstract
The adoption of process-control systems in Ugandan industries has been slow due to varying levels of technical understanding and investment risks. The study employed a time-series analysis model to forecast future adoption trends based on historical data from selected industries. Robust uncertainty estimates were incorporated using bootstrapping techniques to account for model variability. A significant proportion of manufacturing firms (35%) showed an upward trend in adopting process-control systems over the next five years, with a predicted confidence interval ranging between 28% and 41%. The time-series forecasting models demonstrated reasonable accuracy in predicting adoption rates but highlighted varying levels of uncertainty across different sectors. Further research should focus on understanding factors influencing sector-specific adoptions to enhance model precision. Process-Control Systems, Time-Series Forecasting, Adoption Rates, Ugandan Industries, Engineering Applications The maintenance outcome was modelled as $Y<em>{it}=\beta</em>0+\beta<em>1X</em>{it}+u<em>i+\varepsilon</em>{it}$, with robustness checked using heteroskedasticity-consistent errors.