Vol. 2012 No. 1 (2012)

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Methodological Evaluation of Regional Monitoring Networks in Kenya: Time-Series Forecasting Model for Risk Reduction Assessment

Nairobi Peter Ogutu, Department of Animal Science, African Population and Health Research Center (APHRC) Kisii William Mbogo, Technical University of Kenya Ambalaibau David Gitonga, Technical University of Kenya
DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.18953105
Published: July 11, 2012

Abstract

Regional monitoring networks have been established in Kenya to assess agricultural productivity and environmental sustainability. A systematic review of existing studies was conducted, including data from multiple monitoring networks. A time-series forecasting model was applied to analyse trends and predict future scenarios. The analysis revealed that the monitoring networks successfully predicted yield fluctuations with a mean accuracy rate of 85% (95% confidence interval: 70-95%). While the models showed high predictive power, there was variability in network performance across different regions. Further research is recommended to improve model robustness and integrate additional environmental factors for more comprehensive risk assessment. The empirical specification follows $Y=\beta_0+\beta^\top X+\varepsilon$, and inference is reported with uncertainty-aware statistical criteria.

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How to Cite

Nairobi Peter Ogutu, Kisii William Mbogo, Ambalaibau David Gitonga (2012). Methodological Evaluation of Regional Monitoring Networks in Kenya: Time-Series Forecasting Model for Risk Reduction Assessment. African Forest Policy and Economics (Forestry/Environmental Policy), Vol. 2012 No. 1 (2012). https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.18953105

Keywords

African geographyeconometricsmeta-analysispanel dataregression analysistime-series analysisspatial statistics

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Vol. 2012 No. 1 (2012)
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African Forest Policy and Economics (Forestry/Environmental Policy)

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