Vol. 2012 No. 1 (2012)

View Issue TOC

Machine Learning Models in Climate Prediction and Adaptation Planning in Ethiopia: A Comparative Study

Mekdes Debella, Jimma University Abraha Fikru, Jimma University
DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.18955840
Published: February 14, 2012

Abstract

Climate prediction is crucial for effective adaptation planning in Ethiopia, a country facing significant climate variability and change. Machine learning (ML) models have shown promise in enhancing predictive accuracy compared to traditional statistical methods. The study utilised historical climate data from to across multiple regions in Ethiopia. Random Forest was applied using mean absolute error (MAE) for model evaluation, while Support Vector Machines used cross-validation for robustness assessment. Random Forest demonstrated an MAE of 3.5°C in temperature predictions and a proportion of variance explained (R²) of 72% in precipitation forecasts over the validation period. Both ML models outperformed baseline statistical methods, with Random Forest showing superior performance across all evaluated climate variables. Further research should explore ensemble approaches combining multiple ML techniques and incorporate local knowledge to enhance adaptation planning strategies in Ethiopia. Machine Learning, Climate Prediction, Adaptation Planning, Ethiopia, Random Forest, Support Vector Machines Model estimation used $\hat{\theta}=argmin_{\theta}\sum_i\ell(y_i,f_\theta(x_i))+\lambda\lVert\theta\rVert_2^2$, with performance evaluated using out-of-sample error.

Full Text:

Read the Full Article

The HTML galley is loaded below for inline reading and better discovery.

How to Cite

Mekdes Debella, Abraha Fikru (2012). Machine Learning Models in Climate Prediction and Adaptation Planning in Ethiopia: A Comparative Study. African Journal of ICT, Innovation and Society, Vol. 2012 No. 1 (2012). https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.18955840

Keywords

Machine LearningClimate ChangeEthiopiaGeographic Information SystemsSpatial AnalysisPredictive ModellingGeostatistics

Research Snapshot

Desktop reading view
Language
EN
Formats
HTML + PDF
Publication Track
Vol. 2012 No. 1 (2012)
Current Journal
African Journal of ICT, Innovation and Society

References