African Ageing Studies (Interdisciplinary - Social/Health focus) | 18 September 2009
Time-Series Forecasting Model for Evaluating Cost-Effectiveness of Community Health Centres in Kenya
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Abstract
Community health centres (CHCs) play a crucial role in healthcare delivery in Kenya, particularly addressing the needs of underserved populations. However, their cost-effectiveness over time remains an area for methodological evaluation. A time-series forecasting model was employed to analyse data from CHCs in Kenya, incorporating robust standard errors to account for uncertainty in predictions. The study aimed at understanding how these centres have evolved over the period under review. The model indicated a steady increase in patient consultations and preventive care services provided by CHCs, with an estimated growth rate of 5% per annum, suggesting sustained cost-effectiveness over time. This study provides empirical evidence on the long-term viability of CHCs in Kenya, highlighting their role in improving healthcare access and efficiency. Further research should explore interventions to optimise resource allocation within CHCs for better service delivery and patient outcomes. Community Health Centres, Cost-effectiveness, Time-series Forecasting, Healthcare Systems, Kenya Treatment effect was estimated with $\text{logit}(p<em>i)=\beta</em>0+\beta^\top X_i$, and uncertainty reported using confidence-interval based inference.