Abstract
{ "background": "Recurrent severe droughts threaten the viability of pastoralist livelihoods in North Africa, with livestock asset loss a well-documented economic shock. The longitudinal impact of such climate-related losses on psychological morbidity in this population remains poorly quantified.", "purpose and objectives": "This study aimed to establish the longitudinal association between drought-related livestock mortality and the incidence of clinically significant psychological morbidity among male pastoralists.", "methodology": "A closed cohort of 412 pastoralist men from the Drâa-Tafilalet region was followed. Livestock mortality was recorded annually. Psychological morbidity was assessed biennially using a validated, culturally adapted clinical interview. The primary analysis used a generalised estimating equation: $\\logit(P(Y{it}=1)) = \\beta0 + \\beta1 L{i,t-1} + \\beta' X{it} + \\alphai$, where $Y{it}$ is a binary indicator for morbidity for individual $i$ at time $t$, $L{i,t-1}$ is the lagged livestock loss, and $X_{it}$ are time-varying covariates. Robust standard errors were clustered at the household level.", "findings": "A one standard deviation increase in lagged livestock loss was associated with a 1.52-fold increased odds of incident psychological morbidity (95% CI: 1.18 to 1.95). Over the study period, men in the highest quartile of livestock loss had a cumulative morbidity incidence of 34%, compared to 11% in the lowest quartile.", "conclusion": "Drought-induced livestock mortality is a significant and persistent risk factor for psychological morbidity in this pastoralist population, indicating that climate impacts extend beyond immediate economic loss to affect long-term mental health.", "recommendations": "Integrate mental health screening and support services into climate adaptation and livestock insurance programmes targeting pastoralist communities. Future research should investigate protective social factors and women's experiences.", "key words": "climate change, pastoralism,