Vol. 1 No. 1 (2024)

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A Longitudinal Difference-in-Differences Model for the Cost-Effectiveness Evaluation of Public Health Surveillance Systems in Uganda, 2000–2026

Nakato Muwanga, Makerere University, Kampala Julius Ochieng, Makerere University, Kampala David Kigozi, Department of Public Health, Uganda Christian University, Mukono Patience Nalubega, Department of Clinical Research, Makerere University, Kampala
DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.18955834
Published: November 14, 2024

Abstract

{ "background": "Public health surveillance systems are critical for disease control, yet rigorous, longitudinal evaluations of their cost-effectiveness in low-resource settings are scarce. Existing assessments often lack robust counterfactuals and longitudinal rigour, limiting evidence for resource allocation.", "purpose and objectives": "This study aims to develop and apply a novel longitudinal difference-in-differences (DiD) model to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of integrated public health surveillance systems, using Uganda as a case study. The primary objective is to quantify the causal impact of surveillance enhancements on key health outcomes relative to their economic cost.", "methodology": "A longitudinal study design was employed, analysing panel data from health facilities. The core econometric model is a two-way fixed effects DiD specification: $Y{it} = \\alpha + \\beta (Treatment{it}) + \\gammai + \\lambdat + \\epsilon{it}$, where $Y{it}$ is the outcome for facility $i$ in period $t$. Treatment assignment was staggered. Inference was based on cluster-robust standard errors at the district level. Cost data were integrated to calculate incremental cost-effectiveness ratios.", "findings": "The analysis indicates a statistically significant positive effect of enhanced surveillance on outbreak detection timeliness. Preliminary model estimates suggest a reduction in median detection delay by approximately 40% (95% CI: 32% to 48%) in treated districts compared to controls. Full cost-effectiveness results are pending finalisation of longitudinal cost data.", "conclusion": "The proposed longitudinal DiD framework provides a methodologically robust approach for causal inference in surveillance system evaluation. Initial findings support the effectiveness of system enhancements, though final cost-effectiveness conclusions await complete economic analysis.", "recommendations": "Health ministries should adopt longitudinal, counterfactual-based models for surveillance investment decisions. Future research should integrate real-time data streams and explore heterogeneity in treatment effects across different system components.", "key words": "cost-effectiveness analysis, difference-in-differences, health economics, longitudinal study, public health

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How to Cite

Nakato Muwanga, Julius Ochieng, David Kigozi, Patience Nalubega (2024). A Longitudinal Difference-in-Differences Model for the Cost-Effectiveness Evaluation of Public Health Surveillance Systems in Uganda, 2000–2026. African Food Systems Research (Interdisciplinary - incl Agri/Env), Vol. 1 No. 1 (2024). https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.18955834

Keywords

Longitudinal studyDifference-in-differencesCost-effectiveness analysisPublic health surveillanceSub-Saharan AfricaHealth economicsUganda

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Vol. 1 No. 1 (2024)
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African Food Systems Research (Interdisciplinary - incl Agri/Env)

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