Vol. 1 No. 1 (2023)

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A Methodological Evaluation of Public Health Surveillance Systems in Tanzania: A Difference-in-Differences Model for Assessing Adoption Rates (2000–2026)

Neema Mwakyembe, Department of Internal Medicine, Tanzania Commission for Science and Technology (COSTECH) Juma Rashidi, Department of Public Health, Tanzania Commission for Science and Technology (COSTECH)
DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.18949378
Published: December 14, 2023

Abstract

{ "background": "Public health surveillance systems are critical for disease control, yet methodological frameworks for evaluating their adoption and impact in low-resource settings remain underdeveloped. Existing assessments often lack robust counterfactuals, limiting causal inference on the effectiveness of system enhancements and policy interventions.", "purpose and objectives": "This protocol details a methodological evaluation to quantify the causal effect of a national integrated disease surveillance and response (IDSR) strategy on its adoption across healthcare facilities. The primary objective is to estimate the strategy's average treatment effect on the treated (ATT) using a quasi-experimental design.", "methodology": "We employ a difference-in-differences model, leveraging the phased rollout of the IDSR strategy. The model is specified as $Y{it} = \\beta0 + \\beta1 (Treati \\times Postt) + \\gammai + \\deltat + \\epsilon{it}$, where $Y_{it}$ is the adoption rate in facility $i$ at time $t$. Facility and time fixed effects are included. Inference will be based on cluster-robust standard errors at the district level to account for spatial correlation.", "findings": "As a research protocol, this paper does not present empirical results. Anticipated findings include a quantitative estimate of the ATT, with a hypothesised positive direction and a magnitude exceeding a 15-percentage-point increase in adoption rates among intervention facilities. The analysis will test for parallel pre-trends as a key model assumption.", "conclusion": "The proposed methodology is designed to provide a rigorous, evidence-based assessment of surveillance system strengthening, moving beyond descriptive metrics to causal attribution.", "recommendations": "We recommend the application of this quasi-experimental framework for evaluating other health system interventions in similar contexts, emphasising the need for careful selection of control groups and validation of modelling assumptions.", "key words": "health surveillance, impact evaluation, difference-in-differences, causal inference, health systems, Tanzania", "contribution statement": "This

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How to Cite

Neema Mwakyembe, Juma Rashidi (2023). A Methodological Evaluation of Public Health Surveillance Systems in Tanzania: A Difference-in-Differences Model for Assessing Adoption Rates (2000–2026). African Food Systems Research (Interdisciplinary - incl Agri/Env), Vol. 1 No. 1 (2023). https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.18949378

Keywords

public health surveillancemethodological evaluationdifference-in-differencesSub-Saharan Africahealth systems strengtheningimplementation scienceadoption rates

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Vol. 1 No. 1 (2023)
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African Food Systems Research (Interdisciplinary - incl Agri/Env)

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