African Health and Development Linkages (Interdisciplinary - | 06 August 2009
Time-Series Forecasting Model for Cost-Effectiveness Evaluation of Community Health Centres in Kenya
K, i, v, u, t, i, M, u, g, o, ,, O, m, e, d, e, N, d, e, r, i, t, u
Abstract
Community health centers (CHCs) play a crucial role in healthcare delivery in Kenya, but their cost-effectiveness over time remains underexplored. A mixed-methods approach was employed, integrating quantitative data from financial records with qualitative feedback to forecast future trends in CHC operations. The study utilised a linear regression model for cost-effectiveness analysis. The time-series forecasting revealed an increasing trend in the operational costs of CHCs over the five-year period (-), with a proportion increase of 15% compared to previous years. The study concludes that while there is a need for sustained investment and policy support, proactive cost management strategies can mitigate these increasing operational costs. Stakeholders are recommended to implement evidence-based intervention programmes and to engage in continuous quality improvement initiatives to enhance the efficiency of CHCs. Treatment effect was estimated with $\text{logit}(p<em>i)=\beta</em>0+\beta^\top X_i$, and uncertainty reported using confidence-interval based inference.