Vol. 2009 No. 1 (2009)
Time-Series Forecasting Model for Cost-Effectiveness Evaluation of Community Health Centres in Kenya
Abstract
Community health centers (CHCs) play a crucial role in healthcare delivery in Kenya, but their cost-effectiveness over time remains underexplored. A mixed-methods approach was employed, integrating quantitative data from financial records with qualitative feedback to forecast future trends in CHC operations. The study utilised a linear regression model for cost-effectiveness analysis. The time-series forecasting revealed an increasing trend in the operational costs of CHCs over the five-year period (-), with a proportion increase of 15% compared to previous years. The study concludes that while there is a need for sustained investment and policy support, proactive cost management strategies can mitigate these increasing operational costs. Stakeholders are recommended to implement evidence-based intervention programmes and to engage in continuous quality improvement initiatives to enhance the efficiency of CHCs. Treatment effect was estimated with $\text{logit}(p_i)=\beta_0+\beta^\top X_i$, and uncertainty reported using confidence-interval based inference.
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