Vol. 1 No. 1 (2026)
A Computational Analysis of Ceasefire Dynamics: Network Modelling of Violent Incident Data in South Sudan (2018–2023)
Abstract
This original research employs computational methods to analyse the structural dynamics of conflict and peace in South Sudan. Using a network science approach, we model relationships between armed actors and violent incidents derived from the Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED) dataset for the period 2018–2020. The methodology constructs temporal bipartite networks, applies community detection algorithms, and calculates centrality metrics to identify key conflict drivers and the stability of ceasefire arrangements. Results reveal persistent, latent conflict networks that operate beneath formal peace agreements, highlighting specific actor clusters and geographic hubs that undermine the Revitalised Agreement on the Resolution of the Conflict in South Sudan (R-ARCSS). The discussion critically assesses the utility of computational modelling for conflict early warning and the limitations of top-down peace processes, concluding with policy-relevant insights for conflict mediation.
Read the Full Article
The HTML galley is loaded below for inline reading and better discovery.
How to Cite
Keywords
Research Snapshot
Desktop reading viewReferences
- Vorhölter, J. (2020). Youth at the Crossroads - Discourses on Socio-cultural Change in Post-war Northern Uganda. Directory of Open access Books (OAPEN Foundation).
- Esparragoza, I., Jordan, R., Larrondo-Petrie, M.M., & Saavedra, J.P. (2020). Forming The Global Engineer For The Americas: Global Educational Experiences And Opportunities Involving Latin America And The Caribbean.
- Suleimenova, D., & Groen, D. (2020). How Policy Decisions Affect Refugee Journeys in South Sudan: A Study Using Automated Ensemble Simulations. Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation.
- Madoro, D., Kerebih, H., Habtamu, Y., tsadik, M.G., Mokona, H., Molla, A., Wondie, T., & Yohannes, K. (2020).
Post-Traumatic Stress Disorder and Associated Factors Among Internally Displaced People in South Ethiopia: A Cross-Sectional Study
. Neuropsychiatric Disease and Treatment. - Alrababa’h, A., Masterson, D., Casalis, M., Hangartner, D., & Weinstein, J.M. (2020). The Dynamics of Refugee Return: Syrian Refugees and Their Migration Intentions.
- hampton, R. (2020). Black Racialization and Resistance at an Elite University. University of Toronto Press eBooks.
- South, J., Madzivanzira, T.C., Tshali, N., Measey, J., & Weyl, O.L.F. (2020). In a Pinch: Mechanisms Behind Potential Biotic Resistance Toward Two Invasive Crayfish by Native African Freshwater Crabs. Frontiers in Ecology and Evolution.
- Zbidat, A., Georgiadou, E., Borho, A., Erim, Y., & Morawa, E. (2020). The Perceptions of Trauma, Complaints, Somatization, and Coping Strategies among Syrian Refugees in Germany—A Qualitative Study of an At-Risk Population. International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health.
- Cheval, S., Adamescu, M., Georgiadis, T., Herrnegger, M., Piticar, A., & Legates, D.R. (2020). Observed and Potential Impacts of the COVID-19 Pandemic on the Environment. International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health.
- Mohamed, M.A., Anders, J., & Schneider, C. (2020). Monitoring of Changes in Land Use/Land Cover in Syria from 2010 to 2018 Using Multitemporal Landsat Imagery and GIS. Land.
- Han, H., & Ahn, S.W. (2020). Youth Mobilization to Stop Global Climate Change: Narratives and Impact. Sustainability.
- Sharma, I. (2020). China's Neocolonialism in the Political Economy of A.I. Surveillance. Cornell International Affairs Review.
- Boateng, K., & Afranie, S. (2020). Chieftaincy: An Anachronistic Institution within a Democratic Dispensation? The Case of a Traditional Political System in Ghana. Ghana Journal of Development Studies.
- Carmody, P., McCann, G.P., Colleran, C., & O’Halloran, C. (2020). COVID-19 in the Global South : Impacts and Responses. Arrow@dit (Dublin Institute of Technology).