Vol. 1 No. 1 (2026)
A Computational Analysis of Conflict Dynamics and Ceasefire Resilience in South Sudan: A Network and Event Data Approach
Abraham Kuol Nyuon, Associate Professor of Politics, Peace, and Security; Principal, Graduate College, University of Juba; SUSI Scholar on U.S. Foreign Policy
DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.19474701
Published: October 16, 2020
Abstract
This original research article employs computational methods to analyse the structural dynamics of conflict and the factors influencing ceasefire resilience in South Sudan. Using a novel dataset of conflict events and actor networks constructed from ACLED and supplementary local sources, the study applies temporal network analysis and survival analysis models. The results quantify the centrality of specific armed groups in the conflict ecosystem and identify key political and seasonal variables that significantly predict ceasefire duration. The discussion critically evaluates the utility of computational modelling for peace and conflict studies, arguing for its role in moving beyond qualitative narratives to provide testable, evidence-based insights for conflict resolution policy in South Sudan and similar contexts.
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How to Cite
Abraham Kuol Nyuon (2020). A Computational Analysis of Conflict Dynamics and Ceasefire Resilience in South Sudan: A Network and Event Data Approach. African Peace and Conflict Studies (Broader - Interdisciplinary), Vol. 1 No. 1 (2026). https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.19474701
Keywords
Computational Conflict AnalysisSouth Sudan Peace ProcessTemporal Network AnalysisCeasefire ResilienceEvent Data AnalyticsArmed Actor NetworksSurvival Analysis Modelling
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Vol. 1 No. 1 (2026)
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