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Vol. 1 No. 1 (2026)

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A Computational Analysis of Conflict Dynamics and Peace Agreement Implementation in South Sudan: A Network and Event Data Approach

Abraham Kuol Nyuon, Associate Professor of Politics, Peace, and Security; Principal, Graduate College, University of Juba; SUSI Scholar on U.S. Foreign Policy
DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.19474872
Published: November 3, 2025

Abstract

This original research article employs computational methods to analyse the complex dynamics of conflict and the implementation of the Revitalised Agreement on the Resolution of the Conflict in the Republic of South Sudan (R-ARCSS). Using a novel dataset of conflict events and a network analysis framework, the study models the shifting alliances and violence patterns among major signatory groups between 2018 and 2023. The results quantify a significant decrease in direct, large-scale battles but reveal a persistent, fragmented landscape of low-intensity, localised violence that challenges the peace process. The discussion critically evaluates these computational findings against the political and humanitarian realities on the ground, arguing for a data-informed, adaptive approach to monitoring and supporting peacebuilding. The conclusion highlights the utility of computational social science for providing granular, evidence-based insights for conflict studies in South Sudan and similar post-agreement contexts.

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How to Cite

Abraham Kuol Nyuon (2025). A Computational Analysis of Conflict Dynamics and Peace Agreement Implementation in South Sudan: A Network and Event Data Approach. African Peace and Conflict Studies (Broader - Interdisciplinary), Vol. 1 No. 1 (2026). https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.19474872

Keywords

Computational conflict analysisSouth Sudan peace processEvent data modellingNetwork analysis of armed groupsR-ARCSS implementationFragmented violenceComputational social science

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Vol. 1 No. 1 (2026)
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African Peace and Conflict Studies (Broader - Interdisciplinary)

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