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Vol. 1 No. 1 (2026)

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A Computational Framework for Modelling Conflict Dynamics and Peace Agreement Efficacy in South Sudan

Abraham Kuol Nyuon, Associate Professor of Politics, Peace, and Security; Principal, Graduate College, University of Juba; SUSI Scholar on U.S. Foreign Policy
DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.19474833
Published: September 17, 2024

Abstract

This methodology article presents a novel computational framework for analysing the complex dynamics of conflict and peace in South Sudan. It addresses the limitations of qualitative assessments by proposing a data-driven, agent-based modelling approach that integrates heterogeneous data sources, including event data, socio-economic indicators, and network structures of armed groups. The framework is designed to simulate the impact of specific provisions within peace agreements, such as power-sharing and security arrangements, on long-term stability. The article details the methodology's architecture, data integration protocols, and validation procedures, illustrating its application with a case study of the 2018 Revitalised Agreement on the Resolution of the Conflict in the Republic of South Sudan (R-ARCSS). The proposed tool aims to provide policymakers and researchers with a scalable, evidence-based instrument for forecasting conflict trajectories and evaluating potential interventions.

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How to Cite

Abraham Kuol Nyuon (2024). A Computational Framework for Modelling Conflict Dynamics and Peace Agreement Efficacy in South Sudan. African Peace and Conflict Studies (Broader - Interdisciplinary), Vol. 1 No. 1 (2026). https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.19474833

Keywords

Agent-based modellingConflict informaticsPeace agreement efficacyComputational social scienceSouth Sudan conflictData integrationNetwork analysis

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Vol. 1 No. 1 (2026)
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African Peace and Conflict Studies (Broader - Interdisciplinary)

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