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Vol. 1 No. 1 (2026)

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A Computational Framework for Modelling Conflict Dynamics and Peace Agreement Viability in South Sudan

Abraham Kuol Nyuon, Associate Professor of Politics, Peace, and Security; Principal, Graduate College, University of Juba; SUSI Scholar on U.S. Foreign Policy
DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.19474923
Published: October 20, 2024

Abstract

This methodology article proposes a novel computational framework for analysing the complex dynamics of conflict and peace in South Sudan. It addresses the limitations of qualitative assessments by integrating agent-based modelling with natural language processing of peace agreements and event data. The framework is designed to simulate stakeholder interactions, evaluate the structural robustness of peace accords, and identify potential failure points. The proposed methodology is illustrated through a preliminary application to the 2018 Revitalised Agreement on the Resolution of the Conflict in the Republic of South Sudan (R-ARCSS). The article details the evaluation strategy and discusses how such computational tools can provide evidence-based insights for policymakers and conflict analysts.

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How to Cite

Abraham Kuol Nyuon (2024). A Computational Framework for Modelling Conflict Dynamics and Peace Agreement Viability in South Sudan. African Peace and Conflict Studies (Broader - Interdisciplinary), Vol. 1 No. 1 (2026). https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.19474923

Keywords

computational conflict analysisagent-based modellingpeace agreement text analysisSouth Sudan conflict dynamicsR-ARCSSevent data miningsimulation methodology

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Vol. 1 No. 1 (2026)
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African Peace and Conflict Studies (Broader - Interdisciplinary)

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