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Vol. 1 No. 1 (2026)

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A Computational Framework for Modelling Conflict Dynamics and Peace Agreement Efficacy in South Sudan

Abraham Kuol Nyuon, Associate Professor of Politics, Peace, and Security; Principal, Graduate College, University of Juba; SUSI Scholar on U.S. Foreign Policy
DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.19474954
Published: November 4, 2024

Abstract

This methodology article presents a novel computational framework for the quantitative analysis of conflict dynamics and peace agreement efficacy in South Sudan. It addresses the limitations of qualitative assessments by proposing a hybrid approach that integrates event data, network analysis, and agent-based modelling. The framework is designed to systematically process data from sources such as the Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED) and the South Sudan Conflict Database to model actor interactions and simulate intervention scenarios. The article details the methodology's architecture, its application to a case study of the 2018 Revitalised Agreement on the Resolution of the Conflict in the Republic of South Sudan (R-ARCSS), and presents preliminary evaluation findings. The discussion considers the implications of such computational tools for interdisciplinary peace and conflict studies, highlighting both their analytical potential and inherent limitations.

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How to Cite

Abraham Kuol Nyuon (2024). A Computational Framework for Modelling Conflict Dynamics and Peace Agreement Efficacy in South Sudan. African Peace and Conflict Studies (Broader - Interdisciplinary), Vol. 1 No. 1 (2026). https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.19474954

Keywords

Computational conflict analysisAgent-based modellingEvent data analyticsPeace agreement monitoringSouth Sudan conflict dynamicsNetwork analysisHybrid methodology

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Vol. 1 No. 1 (2026)
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African Peace and Conflict Studies (Broader - Interdisciplinary)

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