Abstract
{ "background": "Communal grazing reserves are a key rangeland management strategy in arid and semi-arid pastoral systems of the Horn of Africa, yet empirical evidence of their efficacy for biomass restoration remains limited and contested.", "purpose and objectives": "This study quantitatively assessed the effectiveness of community-enforced grazing reserves on rangeland biomass recovery in the Afar pastoral region. The primary objective was to determine if reserves significantly increased above-ground biomass compared to continuously grazed areas.", "methodology": "We employed an integrated approach combining time-series analysis of Sentinel-2 satellite-derived Normalised Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) data with ground-truthed biomass measurements from paired reserve and open-grazed sites. A linear mixed-effects model was fitted: $\\text{Biomass}{ij} = \\beta0 + \\beta1 \\text{Reserve}i + uj + \\epsilon{ij}$, where $u_j$ is the random intercept for site pair $j$. Robust standard errors were used for inference.", "findings": "Reserves exhibited a 34% higher mean biomass (p < 0.01, 95% CI: 22% to 46%) than adjacent open-grazed lands. The NDVI time-series revealed a consistent and significant positive divergence in seasonal greenness within reserves following their establishment.", "conclusion": "Community-managed grazing reserves are an effective mechanism for restoring rangeland biomass in this arid pastoral system, demonstrating their critical role in enhancing pastoral resilience.", "recommendations": "Policy should support the formal recognition and integration of these communal institutions into regional land management plans. Further research should investigate optimal reserve duration and spatial configuration for different ecological zones.", "key words": "Pastoralism, rangeland management, NDVI, biomass, land restoration, communal governance, Ethiopia", "contribution statement": "This study provides the first integrated remote sensing and field-based evidence quantifying the biomass recovery impact of Afar communal reserves, offering a