African Sport Studies (Interdisciplinary - Social/Management/Health) | 15 December 2011
Methodological Evaluation of Community Health Centre Systems in Ethiopia Using Time-Series Forecasting Models for Efficiency Measurement
F, a, s, i, l, N, e, g, u, s, s, e, ,, G, a, b, e, r, G, e, b, r, e, a, b, ,, A, s, s, e, f, a, A, s, f, a, w, ,, G, e, b, r, u, T, e, k, l, e
Abstract
Community health centers (CHCs) play a crucial role in delivering healthcare services to underserved populations in Ethiopia. The study employed time-series forecasting models such as ARIMA (Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average) to analyse data from CHCs in Ethiopia over a five-year period. A significant increase of 15% in patient recovery rates was observed using the ARIMA model, indicating potential for efficiency gains with further refinement and resource allocation. The ARIMA model demonstrated robust predictive capabilities for improving CHC performance in Ethiopia, offering a novel method to enhance healthcare service delivery. Implementing evidence-based interventions guided by forecasted models can lead to improved health outcomes and cost savings. Treatment effect was estimated with $\text{logit}(p<em>i)=\beta</em>0+\beta^\top X_i$, and uncertainty reported using confidence-interval based inference.