The Nile Basin is a significant water resource in Africa, spanning multiple countries including Togo, where water scarcity issues often intersect with socio-political dynamics leading to potential conflicts. No empirical research is conducted; instead, a comprehensive review of existing literature on water scarcity, climate change impacts, and historical conflicts in the region will be analysed. This theoretical framework provides an analytical tool for understanding the stochastic nature of water resources and its implications on conflict potential in the Nile Basin, offering insights for policymakers and scholars. Policymakers should prioritise adaptive management strategies that account for climate variability to prevent conflicts over scarce resources. Enhanced cooperation mechanisms among riparian states are also recommended.