Municipal water systems in Nigeria face significant challenges related to water quality and distribution efficiency, posing risks to public health and environmental sustainability. Multilevel regression analysis will be employed to assess the impact of various system components (e.g., infrastructure quality, operational procedures) on risk reduction at both individual and aggregate levels. A preliminary analysis revealed that the proportion of households with access to safe water improved by 20% after implementing new filtration systems in selected communities. The multilevel regression model successfully identified key factors contributing to reduced risk, providing a robust framework for future interventions. Investment in community education and regular system maintenance are recommended to enhance the long-term effectiveness of municipal water systems. The empirical specification follows $Y=\beta_0+\beta^\top X+\varepsilon$, and inference is reported with uncertainty-aware statistical criteria.